Because of our finding, we are able not only to endorse the Gregorian format on the basis of the principles we have identified, but also to endorse the specific scrutiny of — That does not necessarily mean that electors must sign their ballots; we discuss this in the conclusion. The final standard scrutiny may not reveal two finalists. For example, there could be a four-way tie, or there may be two electors tied for second place.
The current law does not address all possibilities. The conclave is not guaranteed to end by a particular date. This meant, however, that a patient majority of electors could block all standard scrutinies to make their candidate a finalist and elect him, effectively removing the requirement that the winner receives two-thirds of the nominations.
Narrowing down to two finalists could make compromise difficult. On some future date, the church may find its electors polarized. In such a climate, a moderate candidate may best serve the church and protect it from schism. But such a compromise would be impossible if the two finalists held positions at opposite extremes. Over the course of deadlock scrutinies, one of the finalists may die. Though remote, this possibility is more likely in a polarized conclave that has trouble reaching a consensus—a process which can take years. Naturally, if one of two finalists in a polarized conclave were to die for any reason, accusations of murder could do tremendous damage to the church and perhaps even cause schism.
To directly address the concern that the conclave is not guaranteed to end by a particular date, we consider the design of a special decisive scrutiny , where all electors participate as both voters and candidates, after which someone is immediately asked to be pope. Such a scrutiny could be a used as a last resort after a sufficient number of failed standard scrutinies, as with the current deadlock method.
Formally, we consider our previous model and introduce an additional axiom forbidding the use of black smoke:. In all its centuries, the conclave has never featured such a scrutiny. This history is unsurprising, for in fact each decisive scrutiny is defective according to the principles we have identified as evidenced by the following three findings.
First, no decisive and impartial scrutiny respects consensus:. Holzman and Moulin 34 For the Gregorian format, no decisive, impartial scrutiny satisfies positive unanimity and negative unanimity. When our model is interpreted as the assignment of a single indivisible object among agents who selfishly desire it and black smoke is interpreted as the destruction of that object, the requirement that someone be selected is equivalent to standard efficiency.
Cardinal Angelo Scola
For this reason, the finding that these axioms become compatible when it is possible to select nobody through black smoke—as evidenced by, for example, the supermajority class—reinforces the finding in various economic models that certain objectives can be achieved only by relaxing efficiency or destroying goods. Second, no decisive and impartial secret ballot uses the nominations at all:.
Holzman and Moulin 37 For the Gregorian format, a decisive, impartial scrutiny satisfies anonymous ballots if and only if it is a fixed-winner scrutiny. To state the third result, we introduce a class of scrutinies, each indexed by an elector who alone determines the winner:. Mackenzie 38 For the Gregorian format, a decisive, impartial scrutiny satisfies candidate neutrality if and only if it is a dictator scrutiny. Taken together, these three findings suggest that there is no acceptable way to use a decisive scrutiny to determine a winner.
We therefore broaden our approach to allow for randomization. Each axiom has a natural analogous definition; for formal statements see Mackenzie With randomization, the uniform random dictatorship is characterized by some of our axioms. This chance-scrutiny can be simply described as follows: first, have each elector write the name of his nominee onto a card; second, mix these cards in a bowl; third, select one of the cards uniformly at random; finally, the name on that card is the winner.
This is, in fact, the only impartial secret ballot chance-scrutiny for which an un-nominated elector never wins:. Mackenzie 39 An impartial chance-scrutiny satisfies anonymous ballots and negative unanimity if and only if it is uniform random dictatorship. The pope may not have the support of two-thirds of the electors.
This can possibly be addressed through ceremony. As a proposal, have each elector seal his nomination card before it is cast. After the winning card is selected, but before it is opened, all of the other cards are burned. Finally, the card is opened to reveal the pope. An elector nominated by all his peers may not win.
There is indeed a small chance that instead, the winner will be the nominee of that elector. This is not a practical concern, as this final method would only be used in a greatly divided conclave. But if the process is interpreted as the electors nominating candidates for God to choose, then this simply means that God always has a choice. Why precisely two-thirds of the electors? Does this particular threshold have any merit outside of its long tradition? Remarkably, similar thresholds have been identified in various problems of social choice—in both finite and infinite settings, from both non-cooperative and cooperative perspectives.
We highlight two particularly interesting examples. Second, consider a continuum of voters N , a compact set in Euclidean issue space of candidates X whose dimensions are interpreted as issues , and a fixed profile of voter preferences over X. For which t is the core nonempty? In fact, this is true more generally, provided preferences are appropriately separable across issues and the distribution appropriately rules out heavy polarization Caplin and Nalebuff Though a secret ballot was used for over three centuries, nevertheless the physical ballots featured concealed signatures to enforce the prohibition against self-nomination.
These signatures would be revealed in rare cases, and if this were a concern, other methods of enforcement could be pursued. We make two such proposals, one involving more paperwork and one involving less. First, 40 suppose there are n electors. Before scrutiny, n identical decks of cards are printed and packaged.
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Each deck consists of n distinct cards, each bearing the name of an elector. To ensure the decks are printed as specified, they are placed in a large bowl and mixed. Each elector takes one deck at random, finds his own card, and finds the card of his nominee. To allow electors to vote for non-electors, each deck might also include a single blank card, onto which can be hand-written the name of any non-elector. This handwritten card need not be signed; it can simply be verified that no handwritten cards nominate electors when the cards are counted.
Clearly, this second vote satisfies impartiality and anonymous ballots.
Ultimately, the trade-off is that while this enforcement method involves less paperwork, it relies critically on the honesty of the electors in the follow-up vote. A few other articles analyze papal elections using the tools of economic theory. Colomer and McLean use results in social choice theory to explain some of the changes in papal elections throughout history, emphasizing the use of approval voting, and moreover include a particular strong collection of primary sources.
In this article, our analysis has focused on scrutiny when each elector nominates one person, but there are other formats that could be considered. Moreover, we have not attempted to model the evolution of opinions due to observing inconclusive scrutiny results, praying, and communicating with peers.
These are interesting topics for future research. The papal conclave was first made a requirement for papal elections in the thirteenth century Pope Gregory X Though the practice was briefly suspended, it has remained law ever since its reinstatement by Pope Celestine V , a hermit who was made pope and resigned within six months only to be imprisoned until death by his successor. Though this is the usual reading, it may be inaccurate. It is not specified what happens if there is not a unique pair with the most nominations, as in the case of for example a three-way tie.
Pope Pius X b abolished accessus , where immediately after a scrutiny each elector may replace his nomination with one for a current nominee. Pope John Paul II abolished i acclamation , where the electors simultaneously and unanimously declare aloud the new pope, and ii compromise , where the electors unanimously agree on a small subset of themselves to be representatives, and at least two-thirds of these representatives nominate the new pope. Pope Pius X a abolished the jus exclusivae : the right for a head of state to announce, through a cardinal, that he vetoed a particular candidate.
Last Conclave's secrets - La Stampa
It was last used in the conclave, which elected the pope who abolished it, when Emperor Franz Joseph I of Austria vetoed Cardinal Rampolla. Incidentally, the same emperor had another heir whose sudden death sparked conflict: Archduke Franz Ferdinand. There have been changes to the ballot layout, the winning threshold, and whether or not an elector may vote for himself—as we shall discuss in detail. Having abolished the remaining alternatives to scrutiny, Pope John Paul II introduced deadlock scrutinies with simple majority. Pope Benedict XVI raised the threshold to two-thirds of the electors.
If anything, principles have typically flowed in the opposite direction, from religions to economists, and for evidence one need not look beyond the axiomatic literature. The distillation of axioms and game-theoretic foundations from these recommendations inspired a vast literature whose findings now fill a book Thomson ; for a recent survey, see Thomson Therefore, in virtue of holy obedience and under pain of excommunication latae setentiae , I again forbid each and every Cardinal elector[ More broadly, the sin of simony covers the exchange of the spiritual for the temporal.
The sin is named for Simon Magus, who according to the Bible offered the apostles Peter and John money in exchange for the ability to impart the Holy Spirit to others through touch Acts — The Catholic view that it is sinful to make such an exchange might help explain why some transactions today are considered repugnant Roth , such as organ sales and prostitution.
Though we view secret voting as protection from bribes and threats, others have viewed public voting as protection against strategic voting when voters know each other. But to our knowledge, there is no such adjective for any Pius; we propose Piusine. Mihara is perhaps the first to define a symmetry axiom using all permutations, except when the permuted result is inadmissible, in a nontrivial model; he considered an infinite voter setting where previous works had considered only measurable permutations.
The analogous symmetry axiom that requires electors are treated symmetrically insofar as they are voters Mackenzie is logically equivalent to anonymous ballots for both the Piusine and Gregorian formats, and the proof is straightforward. In this extraordinary scenario, the Piusine format outperforms the Gregorian format, as with the latter format the sole elector would be unable to cast a nomination. We remark that when there is one elector, the Gregorian format is unavailable, and when there are two electors, the only scrutinies are the fixed-winner scrutinies and the black smoke scrutiny.
What Is a Papal Conclave? and Frequently Asked Questions about the Pope
In that setting, however, the jurors and contestants are different people. In the special case that one object is to be allocated, Sprumont argues for sometimes destroying the object instead of burning money to distribute surplus more evenly. Other findings along these lines include that an auctioneer seeking to maximize his expected revenue should set a reservation price when buyer valuations are uncertain Myerson , and that discarding redundant goods without sacrificing efficiency leads to a rich class of desirable rules in classical exchange economies when agents have Leontief preferences Li and Xue When there are n prizes, the plurality with runners-up rule Tamura and Ohseto meets the requirements, provided there are at least four agents, and this rule even has a characterization in terms of other axioms Tamura Of course, this algorithm need not generate the shortest path between the two partitions.
Skip to main content Skip to sections. Advertisement Hide. Download PDF. Economic Theory pp 1—31 Cite as. An axiomatic analysis of the papal conclave. Open Access. First Online: 27 February Prominent answers throughout history include the hereditary laws of monarchies and the general elections of republics—but what if the monarchs are celibate, and what if the institution teaches students who are not allowed to vote?
This is the case for the Roman Catholic Church, 2 an institution boasting a membership today of over one billion. Its highest office is the papacy , the office of the pope , 3 whose absolute authority among Catholics is founded on the dogma that he is the successor of Saint Peter. Protection from peers and self are then translated into axioms: Voters in elections across the world are protected from the bribes and threats of peers through the use of anonymous ballots Holzman and Moulin , and scrutiny should be no different. It was first introduced at an ecumenical council : a formal gathering of important members of the church across the world to authoritatively settle critical matters.
These are rare events, with only twenty-one of them recognized by the Catholic Church in its entire history, and by Catholic dogma their decrees are infallible that is, immune to human error. That protection from schism was a priority for this particular council is not surprising. Paul Collins nominates him as a papal contender, saying he is "a broadly educated, cultured man". Topics: catholic , holy-see-vatican-city-state.
Kicked out of the temple, he remains free to preach in the marketplace — as is his right. Young women being harassed by jilted male partners are the stereotypical victims of image-based abuse but men are just as likely to be affected and people with disabilities or identify as LGBT or Indigenous experience higher rates of revenge porn.
Australia's principal strike bowler has risen to the World Cup challenge before, and he's doing exactly the same again, writes Geoff Lemon. Sorry, this video has expired. Photo: Italian cardinal Angelo Scola arrives for a meeting on the eve of the start of a conclave at the Vatican on March 11, AFP: Johannes Eisele. AFP: Osservatore Romano. Reuters: Stefano Rellandini. AFP: Hector Guerrero. Reuters: Max Rossi. AFP: Vincenzo Pinto. Photo: Italian cardinal Gianfranco Ravasi arrives for a meeting on the eve of the start of a conclave at the Vatican on March 11, AFP: Filippo Monteforte.
How is the new pope chosen? View article. Gallery: Pope Benedict View gallery. Timeline: Benedict's papacy View timeline. Papal exits through history View article. It's not a responsibility he takes lightly. The typical victim of 'revenge porn' By Rachel Rasker Young women being harassed by jilted male partners are the stereotypical victims of image-based abuse but men are just as likely to be affected and people with disabilities or identify as LGBT or Indigenous experience higher rates of revenge porn.
Starc replicates World Cup form Australia's principal strike bowler has risen to the World Cup challenge before, and he's doing exactly the same again, writes Geoff Lemon. Top Stories 'You won't be drinking Australian milk': Farmers' warning amid mass exodus Coroner finds father who killed two-month-old girl wanted 'better' baby Police fear boy taken from Perth school on motorcycle may be in 'imminent danger' 'He's gonna die': Ex-bodybuilder guilty of 22yo's murder during torture 'Living hell': Revenge porn victim's child had images put in bag Analysis: Is banning mobile phones in schools a good idea?
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Cardinal Ratzinger appeared to have picked up the 6 votes of Cardinal Camillo Ruini and 12 scattered votes. Round 3: Cardinal Ratzinger, 72; Cardinal Bergoglio, At this point, Cardinal Bergoglio needed only four votes to exceed one-third of the total, enough to block a Ratzinger papacy. Brunelli reported the diarist as writing.
But on the fourth round, at least 12 went to Cardinal Ratzinger, giving him 84 and the papacy. In an effort to limit the release of such inside information, the extras to the drama are sworn to secrecy, on pain of excommunication. The secretary of the College of Cardinals, priests for cardinal confessions, doctors, nurses, elevator operators, security officers, cleaning and meal crews and minibus drivers who all serve the cardinals — all took the oath on Monday in the Pauline Chapel in the Apostolic Palace. They numbered about Early Tuesday morning, the cardinals move into the unadorned rooms — chosen by lot — of the Santa Marta residence, where they will stay for the duration.
The residence was first used for a conclave in , replacing makeshift accommodations in the Apostolic Palace, where bathrooms were often far from sleeping quarters. Smoking, in a nod to modern times, is banned at Santa Marta. At 10 a. Tuesday, they celebrate a Mass dedicated to the election of a pope. At p. Vatican carpenters installed a wooden floor, covered by tan cloth, over the pavement to even out the different levels.
They built two rows of tables, covered by crimson cloth, along each of the two long walls of the chapel.
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