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Strong societies and weak states: state-society relations and state capabilities in the Third World. Trade Facilitation in Developing Countries. University of Nottingham. The European Parliament was able to strongly expand its competences. However, it never succeeded in filling the legitimation gap of the deeper union, and its legitimacy is not recognised by a large part of non- voters. This is because the European Parliament is not supported by a standardised election, nor seriously accountable to voters, or even constrained by having to keep a government in office.
Integration to this extent would necessitate a new qualitative ruling foundation for the European Union. Such a new foundation, which would presumably entail pan-European elections without national lists, would take the EU one clear step closer towards statehood. However, politically, this is neither achievable nor even conceivable in the short or long term. Therefore, the issue remains: member states need to muddle through inter-governmentally, always in the hopes that the newest compromise will encounter sufficient support within the population instead of further eroding approval of the EU.
By , this dilemma will have intensified dramatically. This could lead to the EU becoming paralysed in intergovernmental problem solving. Such a paralysis is also more likely to drive up the price of pro-European action through the exacerbated domestic policy situation in which nationalist parties, strengthened by fears of globalisation, identity crises, hatred of the elites and established parties, as well as concerns about economic regression.
Overcoming the north-south divide in the EU on the topic of the euro and the east-west divide on the topic of migration and the constitutional state seems hopeless at the moment. Another factor that will come into play in addition to the major restructuring of global politics is the fundamental upheaval of the global economy. The Third Industrial Revolution, triggered by the victory march of information technology and the Internet, and elevated into new dimensions through the interplay of big data, artificial intelligence, quantum computers, and blockchain technology, might present the most important challenge to the order in which Germany and Europe fared so well in the past seventy years.
The First Industrial Revolution brought mechanisation. Great Britain was its pioneer and founded its global empire on its utilisation of it. The Second Industrial Revolution introduced industrial mass production and the associated new organisational and management techniques. The Third Industrial Revolution is that of digitalisation, in which the United States and China are battling for the leading position.
US companies are currently dominating the markets, but the innovative power of the huge Chinese market is growing quickly, and the Chinese leadership, in close cooperation with the state-affiliated industry, can test the feasibility of new technologies as quickly as possible and apply them without regard for individual civil liberties or the restrictions of a constitutional state. If the mere industrialisation of China and Asia has led to the currently observable global shift in power since the late s, how massive will the changes be if China wins the technological race with the US?
US companies are currently dominating the markets, but the innovative power of the huge Chinese market is growing quickly. Although Europe might not be considered as lagging behind completely, it is too undynamic, too sceptical of technology, and too resistant to change to succeed in ascending to the global premier league. Should Europe fail to keep up, this would not only have consequences for its economic strength, but also for its position of power in the future global order. By , it will have become clear whether Europe will merely receive orders, or help shape global conditions.
Based on current perspectives, the future does not look bright. Passivity in foreign policy and a lack of self-exposure no longer constitute German virtues. European integration is not irreversible, but rather requires constant and massive financial and political investments. Europe has not arrived at the stage of eternal peace yet. Globalisation has not yet inspired Russia and China to convert to the Western political model. The nation state is not dead and buried; it is alive and kicking.
Becoming rich as the export world champion, but contributing little to maintaining the global order, is no longer an option. Maintaining an operational army is not such a terrible idea after all. By , Germany will need to bear a foreign policy load unprecedented in the history of the Federal Republic.
A new global order is emerging, and Germany will play a crucial role in determining whether the European part of this order follows the principles of a free, democratic, and open society, aligns itself with its own, homemade European illiberalism, or turns towards the authoritarian regulatory concepts of Russia and China. To become rich as the export world champion, but contribute little to maintaining the global order, is no longer an option for Germany. The ambition must be to maintain a stable, peaceful, prospering, and free Europe, even without the protective power of America if necessary.
Historically, Europe has been rather inadequate in stabilising and pacifying inherently unstable political structures. Now, it must master a task it has never mastered before, all of this in the face of resistant forces. In its coalition agreement, the parties of the current Federal Government have hinted that they suspect what Germany may lack as a bearer of this immense task.
The only concrete measure they come up with is to increase the funding of those institutions that are at least partly responsible for the hitherto lack of strategic competence — but at least the defect is acknowledged. Strategic competence is a result of enabling citizens and decision-makers to think in the categories of order, interests, power, law, and responsibility on a large scale and in the long term. It emerges if the formulation of wishes and goals is preceded by a sober and realistic assessment of the situation, as well as of available funds and instruments.
Furthermore, it only develops if this realistic assessment is then communicated to citizens and voters to be debated. It arises when decision-makers are willing to take representative democracy seriously and lead it where it is needed — even if this is unpopular — and are ready to conclusively explain the necessity of their actions to the sovereign. For paltry reasons and out of hubris, the one-time strategic opportunity of TTIP was wasted. But all too often the country shows that it is not up to the new duty it must perform in Europe.
The one-time strategic opportunity of TTIP was wasted for paltry reasons and out of hubris. We do not recognise the necessity of defence expenditure amounting to two per cent of the gross domestic product, even though it represents the cheap option, not the expensive one. With the euro currency, Germany fails to realise the scope of the task at hand as well as its responsibility to pay because it also benefits the most.
For a long time, the plight of EU member countries who could no longer shoulder the burden of receiving refugees on their own was ignored on a legalistic rationale — until it was too late, and Germany became a supplicant itself. The strategic necessity of integrating Turkey into the EU was not recognised due to a lack of foresight, a resentment against the Turks, and a solely inwardly looking perspective on the integration project. After the end of the Cold War, the German army was reformed over the course of twenty-five years, with the final result that it is no longer operational.
How can a community that has missed the most important strategic penalty shots of the recent past achieve strategic competence? It is difficult to bring about a mentality change that unlocks strategic horizons that were previously inaccessible. But if Germany wants to take the right steps — for its own sake as well as for the sake of Europe — in this current phase of upheaval and with an emerging new order, a mentality change is imperative.
The country must recognise and humbly accept its importance, power, and relevance for Europe. It must assume its leadership role, but execute it with servitude, in the sense of progressive self-interest that prioritises the interests of partners and neighbours at the same level as its own. It must be communicated that maintaining order will require maximum effort and tremendous costs. These will be well an investment because the alternative — a loss of order, and thereby of freedom and peace — would be much more expensive.
The country should understand that defensibility is not the enemy of freedom, but its prerequisite. And that the law is not valid because of its good intentions, but because it can be enforced.
And that geopolitics does not have to be rejected from the outset for moral reasons. It is rather of central importance as a category of analysis for the understanding of international politics. Politicians must explain all of this to the population, again and again, even if it costs them their mandate. And the executive leaders of the Federal Republic must do the same when shaping the political agenda itself. The euro must be supported by a political union. This will cost a lot of money. And if it does not prove popular, the leaders must risk their political lives for it. The defence expenditures of two per cent should not accommodate Trump, but take stance against him, as they are intended to strengthen the multilateral, rule-based order that he wants to abolish.
The same applies to unlocking a trade policy which currently puts emerging countries at a unilateral disadvantage as to offer these countries development opportunities and fair market conditions. To understand the scope of the task facing Germany and Europe, strategy must be taught at German universities, and strategic training must be compulsory for all officials with a B6 salary grade and above, as has been the standard in other European countries for years. As has been common for economic matters for decades, an advisory council could process the expertise pooled from science, think tanks, and policy consultation on an annual basis and make it available to government.
Little time remains to complete all of this, as the transition is actively underway, and for the most important matters the course will have been set by Europe is starting the round of poker played for the upcoming world order with rather mediocre cards. The time is now. There is no bigger task facing our generation. The focus lies on three main tasks:. The publication suggests that German foreign policy should be orientated on the principle of serving leadership. From to , he worked at the Federal Ministry of Defence. Foreign Policy Pressure on Europe — Russia, China, Turkey This scepticism is further fed by two other trends that are taking place parallel to the departure of the protective power.
Turkey as an Emerging Power Turkey has been identified as another factor of foreign policy pressure on European order. Europe — the Already Weakened Anchoring System To make matters worse, the EU is currently experiencing a development dilemma: even if the member states are willing to take greater integrative steps to solve urgent problems, in-depth integration can hardly be justified without establishing new forms of political legitimation.
It All Revolves around Strategic Competence Strategic competence is a result of enabling citizens and decision-makers to think in the categories of order, interests, power, law, and responsibility on a large scale and in the long term. The Mentality of Benevolent Leadership How can a community that has missed the most important strategic penalty shots of the recent past achieve strategic competence?